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Market Update - GBP NOK 27th January 2010

Sterling has done well in January after bouncing from support just above 9.000 early in the month. The pound has been helped in part by hawkish comments from Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance, prompting markets to start bringing forward expectations of a possible interest rate hike in the UK. Sterling's tailwind was further bolstered by talk of a +0.4% figure for fourth quarter GDP, but the figure came in at just 0.1% yesterday, confirming that the country pulled out of recession at the end of 2009, but only by the finest of margins. Sterling reversed the session's earlier gains on the news, but appears to be getting over that "blip" this morning.

The Krone has been on the back foot as a sharp correction in oil prices impacted the value of the oil rich nation's exports over recent weeks. This came after the currency rallied in late December after the central bank raised interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75%. That level is well above the rates available in the UK and Euro zone, a factor which could help the Krone remain well bid over the coming months, especially if Norges bank make further rate hikes and oil stabilises after recent falls.

We are approaching key technical resistance at 9.5300. A daily close above there would be a significant positive development for sterling, opening the way for a further rally toward 9.95 in due course.

GBP/NOK Currency Chart 27th January 2010

Market Update - GBP NOK 16th September2009

Things were starting to look better for Sterling late last week as the latest Bank of England decision reassured investors. The lack of any further quantitative easing gave traders a reason to buy the pound for once. Unfortunately that reason was removed yesterday as BoE governorMervyn Kinggave another gloomy update in his quarterly inflation report. Labelling the durability of the recovery as "highly uncertain", he indicated that further easing could be in the pipeline. Inflation figures for August were slightly higher than expected, but this failed to offset the comments.

The technical outlook has deteriorated again and we're likely to head lower towards support at 9.57. Below there it's the March lows at 9.11. In view of this latest blow, we advise clients with NOK requirements to consider covering now.

NOK Currency Chart 16th September 2009

Market Update - GBP NOK 11th September 2009

Sterling jumped yesterday after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and made no further increases to the quantitative easing programme. The pound has been on the back foot since last month's central bank meeting at which they raised QE from £125bn to £175bn. The minutes of that meeting showed that three of the nine strong committee actually voted for a larger increase, putting the markets on notice that further increases were likely. More QE means more money in the system, effectively devaluing the pound against its peers. Traders reacted with relief, bidding the pound higher in the short time since the noon announcement. We will have to wait a few days for publication of the minutes of today's meeting to show how last month's 6-3 skew may have changed.

Meanwhile, news that Norwegian consumer prices rose just 1.9% year on year in August weighed on the currency. Analysts had been expecting a larger increase of 2.2%. That helped sterling make the most of things, rising over 1.2% against NOK compared to a 0.6% rise against the Euro.

The technical outlook is improving for sterling. A sudden intra-day reversal like yesterday's can often signal a change of trend, but it's too early to tell if this is the case here. There is room for cautious optimism, but we still advise clients to consider covering half of any NOK requirement on strength, or all of it if we breach yesterday's 9.71 low.

NOK Currency Chart 11th September 2009

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