GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Forecast
Although the below forecast HSBC Manufacturing PMI for China briefly saw the Pound gain on the Australian Dollar on Thursday, the UK’s disappointing retail sales report triggered a reversal and the GBP/AUD exchange rate approached the weekend trending lower than the week’s opening levels.
While the Jackson Hole symposium is likely to trigger market movement tomorrow, there are a couple of economic reports due out next week which could influence the direction taken by the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate.
The Australian figures most worth noting include the Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment Index for August, HIA New Home Sales, Private Capital Expenditure for the second quarter and Private Sector Credit figures for July. UK data is a little lacking, but the nation’s Consumer Confidence index and the Hometrack Housing Survey will be of note. If the Australian reports are positive the GBP/AUD exchange rate could drift higher over the course of the week.
GBP/NZD Exchange Rate Forecast
While the Pound put in a patchy performance against most of its rivals this week, the British currency was able to advance on the New Zealand Dollar amid a run of disappointing economic reports for New Zealand.
Faltering commodity prices, slashed growth forecasts and a -5.4% decline in Consumer Confidence all weighed on the ‘Kiwi’ over the last five days. The ANZ Consumer Confidence Index slumped to a 10-month low this month, sliding to 125.5.
Confidence was down in all areas surveyed and economist Cameron Bagrie said this of the report; ‘The economy may be moderating from a gallop to a canter but we’re still growing solidly. Various indicators of momentum – the tightening in financial conditions and lower commodity prices – fortell a decleration in growth. Conversely, lagging indicators such as employment growth remain more robust.’
Next week fluctuations in the Pound Sterling to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate could be caused by New Zealand’s Trade Balance, Import and Export figures, the NZD ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, Food Price figures, ANZ Activity Outlook and the NBNZ Business Confidence report. If New Zealand’s fundamentals come in positively it could help the ‘Kiwi’ recover recent losses.
As New Zealand and Australia rely heavily on China for trade, the latter nation’s Conference Board Leading Index and Industrial Profits figures will also be of interest.
GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Trending around 1.25
After a week of ups and downs for the Pound, the GBP/EUR exchange rate managed to hold above technical resistance of 1.25. Although Sterling fluctuated as a result of sub-par UK retail sales figures, slowing growth in the Eurozone’s manufacturing and services sectors limited Pound losses.
Next week’s UK data is of low volatility but there are some high profile reports for the 18-nation currency bloc to be aware of. The German and Eurozone Consumer Price Indexes may be the week’s biggest market-movers. If the pace of inflation is shown to have slowed in August, upping the odds of the European Central Bank bringing in additional stimulus, the GBP/EUR exchange rate could break out of its current trading range.
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