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Euro to Pound Exchange Rate Forecast – EUR/GBP Could Fall after ECB meets

Euro to Pound exchange rate chart

In the wake of an upbeat economic report from the British Chambers of Commerce, the Pound crept higher against the Euro and managed to cling on to gains overnight.

The GBP/EUR pairing remained close to a one-month high even after a UK home price report detailed the first monthly drop in property values for almost a year.

Separate figures compiled by the British Retail Consortium revealed a record high 0.8 per cent decline in the shop price index.

Meanwhile, the Euro fluctuated as Germany posted an improved trade surplus (following a smaller than expected gain in exports) and retail sales in the Eurozone surged by 1.4 per cent month-on-month.

Economists had only expected a 0.1 per cent monthly increase in sales. October’s sales figure was negatively revised to a drop of 0.4 per cent.

These reports were swiftly followed by positive German factory order data, but the news that the level of unemployment in the Eurozone remained at a record high of 12.1 per cent in November restrained Euro gains.

The 2.1 per cent surge in German factory orders prompted this response from one Frankfurt-based economist; ‘The signs are that Germany’s economy will keep expanding strongly in the first half of 2014. That’s good for the entire Euro area and will support the region’s recovery this year.’

Unemployment remains an ongoing concern and in the view of some economists the Eurozone’s economic recovery isn’t occurring at a fast enough pace to generate employment.

In the view of economist Evelyn Herrmann; ‘This isn’t going to change anytime soon, with annual growth rates of about 1 per cent this year and in 2015.’

However, even in the face of today’s mixed bag of Eurozone news the Pound was able to hold its own against the Euro as investors focused on tomorrow’s all-important European Central Bank and Bank of England rate decisions.

While the BoE is expected to leave rates unaltered and the level of asset purchases unchanged, yesterday’s Eurozone inflation figures might inspire the ECB to make some reference to the possible introduction of negative interest rates.

Tomorrow the central bank decisions will be dominating the news but UK trade balance figures and Eurozone consumer/economic/industrial and business confidence data may also inspire EUR/GBP volatility.

Current Euro (EUR) Exchange Rates                                                       

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The Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate is currently in the region of: 1.3585 <

The Euro/Pound Sterling Exchange Rate is currently in the region of: 0.8275 <

The Euro/Australian Dollar Exchange Rate is currently in the region of: 1.5232 <

The Euro/ New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate is currently in the region of: 1.6434 <

The US Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate is currently in the region of: 0.7355 >

The Pound Sterling /Euro Exchange Rate is currently in the region of: 1.2081 <

The Australian Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate is currently in the region of: 0.6553 <

The New Zealand Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate is currently in the region of: 0.6080 <

(Correct as of 11:40 GMT)

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