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Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Decline after US Consumer Confidence Bettered Estimates

US Dollar Currency Forecast

EUR/USD Conversion Rate Predicted to Hold Losses on Absence of Data

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate declined by around -0.3% on Tuesday afternoon.

With a complete absence of domestic data to provoke volatility today the Euro has seen movement in response to market changes. Volatility has picked-up despite quiet trade amid thin trading volumes. With the exception of the Pound Sterling, the single currency softened versus all of its most traded currency rivals. The depreciation can be linked to ongoing fears that the political situation in Spain will remain uncertain for some time to come. Spain’s acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose party gained the most seats in the December 20th ballot but still fell well short of a majority, has thus far been unable to persuade any other party to form a coalition.

Rajoy is now calling for a ‘broad-based, consensus government’, stating that those parties that share views on issues such as Spanish unity should come together for the good of the country. ‘There is a majority of Spaniards who have expressed their backing for fundamental issues, such as defending Spanish unity,’ Rajoy told a news conference. ‘The (outcome) that would best match the will of the majority would be a government with broad support (from parties).’

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is currently trending in the region of 1.0938.

USD/EUR Conversion Rate Predicted to Hold Gains despite Mixed US Data Results

Despite the fact that US data produced a mixed-bag of results, erring towards positivity, the US Dollar made only moderate gains versus most of its majors and held losses against commodity-correlated assets. November’s Advance Goods Trade Balance saw the deficit widen less-than-anticipated from -$58.411 billion to -$60.500 billion. October’s S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 was predicted to show 5.60% growth on the year but the actual result only managed 5.54% growth.

December’s US Consumer Confidence was certainly a positive result as the median market forecast rise from 92.6 to 93.5 was thoroughly eclipsed by the actual result rising to 96.5. ‘As 2015 draws to a close, consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy remains positive, particularly their assessment of the job market,’ said Lynn Franco, the group’s director of economic indicators. ‘Looking ahead to 2016, consumers are expecting little change in both business conditions and the labour market,’ she added. ‘Expectations regarding their financial outlook are mixed, but the optimists continue to outweigh the pessimists.’

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate dropped to a low of 1.0908 during Tuesday’s European session.

Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast to Hold Losses ahead of Eurozone Money Supply Data

Given the absence of further market moving data pertaining to either the US or Europe, there is a high chance that the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will hold losses for the remainder of Tuesday’s trade. Tomorrow is likely to see heightened EUR/USD movement with November’s Eurozone money supply data due for publication. There will also be a number of US data publications tomorrow with the potential to provoke changes for the EUR/USD conversion rate. The most significant among these will be MBA Mortgage Applications and Pending Homes Sales.

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate climbed to a high of 1.0992 during Tuesday’s European session.