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Pound to Indian Rupee Long-Term Forecast: Brexit and Crude Oil in Focus

Indian Rupee Currency Forecast

The Pound to Indian Rupee exchange rate has fallen recently on recurrent Brexit concerns, which only seem set to worsen in the future.

As well as strengthening against the Pound, the Indian Rupee (INR) has gained on the Euro (EUR), although the currency has experienced wider fluctuations in response to recent rises in the cost of crude oil.

Latest Pound (GBP) Losses Triggered by PM’s Apparent Lack of Brexit Knowledge

For Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rates, October 24th was not an especially good day when it came to trading. After hitting a morning high of 81.85 against the Indian Rupee, the Pound quickly shed initial gains.

The source of this latest GBP devaluation was the outcome of a Brexit meeting between Theresa May and the heads of the devolved nations, which appeared to end fruitlessly. Speaking after the event, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that;

‘I don’t know any more now about the UK government’s approach to the EU negotiations than I did before I went in to the meeting. At the moment, it doesn’t seem to me like there is a UK negotiating strategy, which is one of the sources of great frustration’.

Meanwhile, demand for the Rupee (INR) has been supported by comments from Union Minister of State for Finance and Corporate Affairs Arjun ram Meghwal. Speaking at an international conference, Meghwal predicted that;

‘Since 1952, we are fixing a target of our agricultural growth at 4%. For the first time, this year…we will achieve 4% in agricultural growth. That will be an achievement. Our economy will definitely reach 8% [this fiscal year]’.

GBP INR Exchange Rate to Remain Under Influence of Further Brexit Developments

For the foreseeable future, the aftermath of the EU Referendum seems set to continue shifting the Pound Indian Rupee (GBP INR) exchange rate, given how far-reaching the implications of Brexit have already been.

Among the numerous concerns currently circulating has been the fear that the City of London (CoL) will be deserted by banking and financial services groups, due to uncertainties about the UK’s future.

If it looks like the government is heading for a ‘Hard Brexit’ with no single market access, the Pound is almost certain to plummet, given that Chancellor Philip Hammond has recently emphasised that ‘We…understand CoL’s needs to be able to engage the right skilled people’.

Indian Rupee Forecast: GBP INR Rate to Shift in Reaction to Crude Oil Costs

Although the Indian Rupee has lately fared well against the Pound (GBP INR) and Euro (EUR INR), it has nonetheless been volatile overall since the end of September. The trigger behind this was the news that OPEC might have finally reached an agreement on curbing oil production, which sent the cost of crude oil soaring.

The typical pattern with the Rupee is that rising crude costs translate to a falling INR, on account of Indian oil imports becoming more expensive.

OPEC is due to meet in late November to potentially finalise agreements on oil production, which could well send the Rupee tumbling if a production cap decision is reached and oil costs jump in consequence.

Recent Interbank Exchange Rates

At the time of writing, the Pound Indian Rupee (GBP INR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 81.30 and the Indian Rupee Pound (INR GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.01.