On Thursday the Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 103.0500, moving between a low of 103.0000 and a high of 103.6600. The Pound softened by around -0.49% against its Indian rival as a result of poor UK manufacturing output data.
Wednesday was a less-than-ideal day for Sterling. Softer-than-expected manufacturing output saw a drop by 7% from its pre-recession peak. Year-on-year manufacturing failed to achieve the forecast figure of 2.1% and came in at a dissatisfying 1.9%. Similarly year-on-year industrial production came in below the forecast figure of 1.5% at 1.2%. This softened the Pound against most currencies despite a better-than-forecast result in the Halifax House Price report which showed an annual increase in house prices of 10.2% from the forecast figure of 9.6%.
The Indian Rupee had a similarly troubled day on Wednesday, posting its largest single-day dip in 6-1/2 months against the US Dollar. This was the result of heavy outflow from the domestic share and the continuation of debt markets as foreign investors cut their holdings.
The Pound Sterling exchange rate held declines overnight and was little-changed on Thursday following the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision. The BoE maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, the same rate deployed by the bank since March 2009. Similarly, the BoE Asset Purchase Target for August remained unaffected at 375 billion.
Conversely, the Indian Rupee recovered losses on Thursday as a result of the Reserve Bank of India’s US Dollar sales. Key to the currency’s movement in the near-term will be the movement in other Asian assets and the global geopolitical situation. Pramod Patil, assistant vice-president of foreign exchange at United Overseas Bank, remarked; ‘The Rupee is tracking the weakness in Asian peers and the string of U.S. manufacturing data’.
Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) Exchange Rate Forecast
Today will see the release of yet another influential economic report for the UK economy. The Trade Balance, one of the greatest components of the United Kingdom’s Balance of Payment, is forecast to come in at -£2050, down from a previous figure of-£2418. Also, the UK’s year-on-year construction output is forecast to come in at 4.7% in June. Another important data release concerning UK Economic standing is the Visible Trade Balance. The forecast figure is -£8900 down from May’s posting of -£9204.
Friday will also see a few moderately interesting data releases concerning the Rupee. Year-on-year deposit growth and bank loan growth are the Indian reports to be aware of.
Looking forward, next Tuesday sees some very important data releases for the Rupee. India’s year-on-year Industrial Production is forecast to come in at 1.62% from the previous posting of 4.7%. Year-on-year inflation rate figures are forecast at 8.09%, a rise from the previous posting of 7.31%. Also year-on-year Manufacturing Production data will be significant. It is forecast to drop dramatically from the previous posting of 4.8% to -2.33%.
The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate could close out the week in a slightly stronger position if today’s UK reports impress.
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