The Pound Sterling to Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF), Pound Sterling to Russian Ruble (GBP/RUB) and Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rates could all be in for some major movement in the week ahead with several influential events taking place, like the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions and the release of UK, Swiss, Russian and Indian manufacturing sector stats.
Indian, Swiss, Russian and Manufacturing Data Forecast to cause GBP/RUB, GBP/CHF and GBP/INR Movement
Monday will be kick-started with the HSBC Indian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is forecast to rise from 51.30 to 53.05 in the month of May. Any improvement above the 50.00 benchmark denotes growth and therefore could help the Indian commodity currency to climb.
Russia’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI will be released just an hour later and is predicted to decline from 48.90 to 48.51 in May. Russia’s ecostats are likely to take a downturn as the country faces recession.
The UK will also have some manufacturing stats out on Monday, in the form of Markit’s Manufacturing PMI. The UK is also forecast to register growth, from 51.90 to 52.63. Indian Infrastructure Output data will follow much later in Monday’s session.
RBI Rate Decision Causes Market Uncertainty, Indian Rupee (INR) Exchange Rate Forecast for Choppy Trading
Tuesday’s going to heat up Rupee exchange rate trading with the RBI’s interest rate decision taking place. The markets are mixed on whether the RBI will hold rates at 7.5% or cut them to 7.25% and therefore Indian Rupee exchange rate movement is likely to become quite choppy surrounding the announcement.
Wednesday will see the release of the HSBC Indian and Russian Services PMIs, which are both forecast to decline. India’s service sector is forecast to remain in growth territory, declining from 52.40 to 51.77, whereas Russia’s Services PMI is expected to dip from 50.70 into contraction at 49.02.
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision to Cause Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rate Movement
Thursday is where Pound Sterling exchange rate trading will really heat up with the Bank of England due to announce its latest interest rate decision. The BoE isn’t likely to move rates away from the current 0.50%, but the meeting minutes out later in the month will divulge whether or not policymakers were divided on the decision.
Russian Inflation Forecast to Fall as Economy Faces Sanction Difficulties – Ruble (RUB) Exchange Rate Softens in Response
Also out on Thursday is Russia’s Inflation Rate stats. On the year, inflation is expected to decline in May from 16.40% to 16.00%.
The implementation of sanctions against Russia has caused problems with the economy and we’re likely to see several months of weakening data ahead.
Friday will be another day of Rupee movement with the Indian Current Account stat for Q1 released. The deficit is forecast to shrink from $-8.2B to $-5.3B.
Additionally, any central bank statements made throughout the week could influence the GBP/RUB, GBP/CHF and GBP/INR exchange rates.
The situation in Greece is also likely to cause Swiss Franc exchange rate fluctuations as investors seek a safe-haven currency amid such an uncertain situation.
If the possibility of a Grexit becomes more evident, the Euro (EUR) exchange rate is likely to drop and the Swiss Franc is forecast to gain, especially as other safe-haven assets such as the Yen are less popular with investors at the moment.
On Friday, the Pound Sterling to Russian Ruble (GBP/RUB) exchange rate was trending at 80.2181. The Pound Sterling to Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) exchange rate was trading at 1.4343. The Pound Sterling to Indian Rupee (GBP/INR) exchange rate was trending in the region of 97.3680.