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Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate to Strengthen Further ahead of UK Inflation?

Pound US Dollar

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Set to Firm amid Hawkish BoE

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate is regaining strength today as hawkish BoE comments buoy the Pound ahead of a week of crucial UK data, including the inflation rate for June.

At time of writing the GBP/USD exchange rate is around $1.20, a 1.2% rise from this morning’s opening levels.

Pound (GBP) Buoyed Despite Political Uncertainty

The Pound (GBP) could be set to bolster further as a busy week of data is preceded by a hawkish speech from Bank of England (BoE) member Michael Saunders. Increased bets for aggressive rate hikes going forward have provided a moderate tailwind for Sterling as investors await several crucial data releases this week.

Capping any further gains for the Pound is the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the race for Prime Minister. With the next round of votes set to whittle the remaining five down, investor’s will be keeping a close eye on the candidates’ fiscal policies. And so far, none have stood out to inspire much confidence in leading the UK out of economic strife.

Looking ahead, a flurry of data releases could see the Pound experience volatile movement. All eyes will be on the inflation rate for June. After the forty-year high of 9.1%, the annual rate is set to climb to 9.3% for the month. If the inflation rate prints higher, a bold rate hike from the BoE will certainly be priced in.

US Dollar (USD) Softens amid Improving Market Sentiment

The US Dollar (USD) is struggling to find demand today as the markets remain risk-positive, stemming the safe-haven flows that have buoyed the ‘Greenback’ for several weeks now.

However, despite reassuring commentary from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), the return of a risk-averse market is likely to lend support to the US Dollar once more. PBoC Governor Yi said that monetary policy will support the Chinese economy as it navigates through a shaky economic recovery, which has boosted the risk-sensitive currencies today.

But with Covid cases rising in China, its strict zero-Covid policy could cause another slowdown to the biggest manufacturing economy in the world. With the Ukraine crisis fuelling energy security concerns in Europe, exacerbating fears of a global recession will weigh on market sentiment. In turn will pave the way for safe-haven flows once again, boosting the ‘Greenback’.

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