The Pound has climbed by 0.4% against the New Zealand Dollar at the end of a quiet week in terms of UK political developments, but the coming weeks are set to see activity rise and Pound volatility increase.
The House of Commons previously approved the Article 50 bill without amendment; the bill has now been moved onto the House of Lords.
With the dubious threat of abolishment hanging over the Lords if they reject the bill, when proceedings restart on February 20th they are expected to generate more movement for the Pound than prior debates and votes in the Commons.
Liberal Democrat Lords Leader Dick Newby has hinted at such a display;
‘There are a lot of members of the [Lords] for whom Europe is the big thing that has motivated them in politics. We were complacent, truth be told. But things have turned and people on our side feel very strongly about it. We’ve got three weeks to persuade [Labour peers]. There are very many strong Europeans in the Labour party. A lot of them are taking it into their own hands, because I talk to a lot of them’.
Brexit Secretary David Davis has also forecast that;
‘[The Lords] will do its job of scrutiny, we’ll have some passing backwards and forwards of the bill, but I expect that to be resolved in good time before the end of March’.
The ‘backwards and forwards’ refers to amendments; with the Lords not being bound to Government mandate, it is expected that a number of amendments will actually be added to the bill, which could require the UK to retain certain ties to the EU.
Such amendments would likely bolster the Pound, given that they could lessen the trauma faced by the UK economy when Article 50 is finally triggered and the UK starts to leave the EU.
New Zealand news to be aware of includes as Prime Minister Bill English meeting with his Australian counterpart Malcolm Turnbull.
As the first full meeting between Turnbull and the new NZ leader, topics are expected to include future plans for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and volatile new US President Donald Trump.
If the meeting appears productive the New Zealand Dollar could firm against the Pound.
At the time of writing, the Pound New Zealand Dollar (GBP NZD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.73 and the New Zealand Dollar Pound (NZD GBP) exchange rate was trending in the region of 0.57.