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Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast: CAD/GBP Climbs on Oil Price Rise, Canadian Building Permits and Housing Starts, CAD/USD Trending Lower

The Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) exchange rate began Tuesday’s European session trending lower as the price of crude oil began to climb; the Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD) exchange rate softened ahead of US Wholesale Inventories data. 

Additionally, Monday’s Canadian Housing Starts ecostat jumped at 201.7K in May, far higher than the 185.0K forecast. Furthermore, the Canadian Building Permits number came in at 11.6% rather than the predicted -5.0% contraction.

The Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) and Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD) exchange rates could be in for an interesting ride this week with a host of influential data out for release.

The Canadian Dollar will be sensitive to developments both in the US and Canada, as well as any changes in the price of crude oil, the nation’s largest commodity. As for North American data next week, Monday will begin with the Canadian Housing Starts and Building Permits ecostats which are likely to have a moderate impact on the ‘Loonie’ (CAD) exchange rate.

Meanwhile, Thursday is scheduled to see the Canadian New Housing Price Indexes released. In March on the year, the New Housing Price Index resided at 1.2% and any increase could allow the Canadian Dollar (CAD) to climb against other major currencies.

Canadian Dollar (CAD) Exchange Rate Sensitive to Crude Oil Price Changes after OPEC Meeting

By way of oil developments, this week was an extremely interesting one. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) met in Vienna on Friday to discuss crude oil production.
OPEC is a major player when it comes to the oil industry; consisting of 12 countries, supplying a third of the world’s oil exports and sitting on 80% of the world’s oil reserves.

There was a lot of speculation regarding the OPEC meeting as some industry experts feared the group would heighten production, despite oil prices tumbling significantly due to a global glut in the past year.

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi commented: ‘You’ll be surprised at how amicable the meeting was.’

OPEC stated that it will continue with ‘the same ceiling’ and not increase production which would pressure oil prices and the Canadian Dollar (CAD) lower.

US Advance Retail Sales, UK GDP Estimate to Cause CAD/USD, CAD/GBP Exchange Rate Fluctuations

By way of US and UK data, there are several instances that the Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) exchange rate could be in for a rocky ride on Wednesday when the UK’s Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production ecostats emerge. Additionally, Wednesday will see the release of the UK’s NIESR Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate which will be influential for the Pound Sterling (GBP) after the BCC recently downgraded 2015 GDP growth forecasts.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar to US Dollar (CAD/USD) exchange rate will be in for movement on Thursday with the release of the US Advance Retail Sales stat. The May figure is forecast to rise by 0.8% and could offer the USD/CAD exchange rate some serious support.

Friday will be another interesting day for the US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate with the release of the University of Michigan Confidence stat. Economists have forecast a rise from 90.7 to 91.5 in June and if correct the US Dollar could rally.

Comments from the Bank of Canada (BOC), Bank of England (BoE) or the US Federal Reserve (especially those regarding interest rates) could all cause GBP/CAD and USD/CAD market movement.

On Friday, the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate was trending in the region of 1.9036. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate was trending at 1.2478.