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‘Kiwi’ (NZD), ‘Loonie’ (CAD) Exchange Rates Remaining Weak as ‘Aussie’ (AUD) Defies Trend to Rally on Improved Retail Sales

New Zealand Dollar Currency Forecast

Dairy Price Slump and Employment Data Punish Softening New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to Boost Exchange Rates

After a dismal result from the GlobalDairyTrade auction last night, with the index falling for the tenth consecutive occasion, and a worse than expected year-on-year Employment Change figure the ‘Kiwi’ (NZD) took a further downturn against rivals. The GBP/NZD exchange rate was consequently boosted from a low of 2.3592 to start the morning trending in the range of 2.3848.

Currently the GBP/AUD pairing is moving positively around 2.1164 and the GBP/CAD exchange rate is trending narrowing in the region of 2.0561.

Earlier…

Australian Dollar (AUD) Bullish Against Rivals Today with Good Retail Sales and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision

Something of a surprise resurgence took hold of the ‘Aussie’ (AUD) overnight as Australian Retail Sales data surged above expectations to hit an eight-month high of 0.7% and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to maintain interest rates at their current level, instead of making cuts as traders had been fearing. As sweeping gains were prompted across the board, the antipodean currency has today seen movement ranging from 1.0% against the New Zealand Dollar to 1.6% against the Chinese Yuan.

In spite of the continuing commodity downturn and Chinese stock worries, it seems that the Australian economy may perhaps be edging back towards a state of optimism. However, this strong rally could potentially have the wind taken out of its sails in the later week as Australia’s Performance of Service Index and unemployment data are released. That said, further bucking of previously negative trends could spell well for the ‘Aussie’ amidst increased confidence as the risk currency becomes a more attractive proposition for pundits.

Currently down to a weekly low, and still falling, the GBP/AUD exchange rate is in the region of 2.1086 as the AUD/GBP pairing remains soaring at 0.4740.

Nerves for New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Value as Dairy Price Slump Predicted to Worsen, GBP/NZD Exchange Rate Retreats from High

Ahead of tonight’s unemployment data for New Zealand the ‘Kiwi’ (NZD) is trending positively against many of the majors. An increase in the Unemployment Rate is predicted, 5.9% over 5.8% in the previous quarter, which seems likely to prompt decreased confidence in the country’s current economic health.

However, these figures look to be significantly overshadowed by the upcoming dairy auction, which will set the reference price for the global market and is forecast to see a further decline in value for the nation’s key export. Lower prices bode ill for the risk currency and could easily drive investors away, particularly to the ‘Aussie’ given the boom the neighbouring currency is experiencing at present.

In spite of potential concerns a weakened Pound (GBP) has prompted the GBP/NZD exchange rate to trend downwards at 2.3605, with NZD/GBP rising to 0.4235.

GDP Recession Confirmation Sees Canadian Dollar to Pound Sterling (CAD/GBP) Exchange Rate Weaken Further as Oil Market Remains in State of Decline

Crude oil prices continue to erode the value of the ‘Loonie’ (CAD) this week, as prices dipped under $50 for the first time since January. Coming on top of the confirmation of a Canadian recession, as Friday’s GDP report posted a figure of -0.2% to signal the fifth consecutive month of economic contraction, the currency appears to be entering a period of significant losses. The GBP/CAD exchange rate continues to trend upwards towards a potential new eight-year high, as the majority of the majors make gains against the Canadian Dollar today.

This afternoon’s Manufacturing PMI may hold the potential for the currency to rally, or at least stabilise somewhat. Should the result, however unlikely, prove to be better than expected it could counteract lowered opinions, encouraging traders to embrace the risk and return to the ‘Loonie’.

At time of writing the GBP/CAD exchange rate is trending narrowly around 2.0501.