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Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) Exchange Rate Forecast: Finland’s Unemployment Rate/Swiss Trade Balance Jump, Will a Finnish Exit Occur?

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The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) exchange rates were both trending lower on Thursday after a fall in UK Retail Sales occurred, the Swiss Trade Balance rose unexpectedly and the Eurozone produced downbeat Markit Purchasing Manager’s Indexes (PMI).

Swiss Franc to Pound Sterling (CHF/GBP), Swiss Franc to Euro (CHF/EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast

The Swiss Franc was offered some considerable support against other currency majors such as the Pound (CHF/GBP) and Euro (CHF/EUR) when Switzerland’s trade surplus recorded a jump from February’s 2.32B to 2.52B in March. The ecostat defied forecasts to slip to 2.12B.

Exports rose by 1.2% in March after February’s -2.4% contraction and Imports slipped by -2.4% after rising 4.4% the previous month.

The Swiss Franc rose to heady levels after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removed the cap between the Euro and the Swiss currency in a shock move at the start of the year.

Economist Matthias Pfammatter stated: ‘The effect of the Swiss Franc shock is less severe than expected, but some sectors are hit far harder than others.’

However, there are other concerns surfacing over the fate of the Swiss economy after the SNB event. Swatch chief Nick Hayek commented: ‘The main figure to watch is inflation which is negative at the moment. A prolonged deflationary period would bring Switzerland into recession.’

Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), Swiss Franc (EUR/CHF) Exchange Rate Forecast

Meanwhile, the Euro is trading under the canopy of ongoing Greek negotiations, which appear to have made very little progress in the past few months.

However, Finland recently saw Eurosceptic political party the Finns take second place in the Finnish general election and some experts have suggested that the nation may become next in line to question its relationship within the Eurozone.

Finland’s Unemployment Rate Increase to Add Fuel to Finnish Exit Speculation

That could be a view further emphasised on Thursday with Finland’s Unemployment Rate increase. Finland’s previously world- renowned Nokia company has fallen and the nation’s lumber sector has been subject to losses and now with joblessness continuing to rise it’s not a surprise many are questioning the value of remaining within the currency bloc.

Finland’s jobless rate increased from 10.1% to 10.3% in March despite forecasts to decline to 9.6%.

The number of unemployed citizens rose to 272,000 in March from February’s 268,000. A year ago, the total level of joblessness had resided at 252,000.

Furthermore, France, Germany and the Eurozone posted some disappointing figures in the form of Markit’s Services, Manufacturing and Composite Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI), with all gauges recording declines.

The German Composite measure slipped from 55.4 to 54.2 in April, while the Eurozone Composite PMI hit 53.5 from the previous 54.0.

Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR), Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) Exchange Rate Forecast

The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) and Pound Sterling to Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) exchange rates could fluctuate on Friday with the release of Germany’s IFO Business Climate, IFO Current Assessment and IFO Expectations surveys, as well as SNB President Thomas Jordan speaking.

No UK data will emerge during Friday’s session, leaving the Pound Sterling exchange rate vulnerable to global developments.

The Pound Sterling to Swiss Franc (GBP/CHF) exchange rate is trading at 1.4478; the Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.3971.