GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Steadies after Italy Shows Signs of Compromising on its Budget
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate remains steady today, and is currently trading at €1.1106 despite yesterday’s announcement from Italy’s deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini that Italy had finalised ‘an agreement on further fiscal reductions’ to avoid disciplinary actions from the European Commission (EC).
The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, was weakened after yesterday’s release of the Rightmove house price index figures for December, which showed a -1.5% decrease against last month’s drop at -1.7%.
The Euro (EUR), too, was hit by yesterday’s data releases, with the most notable being the decrease in the Consumer Price Index for November.
Pound Sterling (GBP) managed to gain on the Euro (EUR) after the release of the Eurozone trade balance figures, which slipped to a surplus of €12.5bn from last month’s €13.4bn.
Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) Exchange Rate Rangebound after Government Opposition Tables ‘No-Confidence’
British Prime Minister Theresa May is rallying to gain support for her Brexit withdrawal deal after last week’s disappointing attempt to renegotiate crucial aspects of her agreement with the European Union (EU), leaving Pound (GBP) investors skittish.
Today also saw the Communities Secretary, James Brokenshire, comment that Downing Street had been preparing for a possible Brexit ‘no-deal’, saying:
‘It’s not what we want to do, it’s not what we still expect to do… but I think it is right and proper that we maintain our work on preparing for no deal, however reluctantly.’
This came after the Labour opposition leader, Jeremy Corbyn, tabled a ‘no-confidence’ vote against Theresa May, after she pushed forward the ‘meaningful’ vote on her Brexit agreement still further.
The Pound (GBP) remains sensitive to any signs of Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal deal being rejected and resulting in a ‘no-deal’, and as pressures mount from Parliament, Sterling investors have remained cautious.
EUR/GBP Exchange Rate Static as Eurozone is Plagued by Political Upheaval
Today saw the Euro (EUR) further weakened by the release of Germany’s IFO expectations figures for December, which decreased to 97.3 against last month’s 98.7, further dampening market confidence in the single currency.
These were followed by Germany’s IFO current assessment figures for December which also decreased against last month’s figures.
The Euro (EUR) has been unsettled generally since last week’s political upheavals, most notably in France where the gilets jaunes protestors caused President Emmanuel Macron to capitulate on a number of tax measures.
These have further exacerbated concerns over Italy’s budget revision, with worries that Rome will mimic France’s manoeuvre and break EU fiscal rules.
GBP/EUR Outlook: Brexit and Revised Italy Budget Remain in Focus
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate looks set to be dominated by political forces this week, with Brexit still maintaining the spotlight as Theresa May faces increasing pressure to gain support for her Brexit withdrawal agreement.
EUR investors, meanwhile, will be awaiting further political developments in France, Italy and the UK with increasing pressure on Italy to produce a revised budget that is in accordance with EC rules.
Looking ahead to Thursday, Pound (GBP) investors will be paying close attention to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, with any signs of bearishness weakening Sterling.
Thursday will also see the release of UK retail sales figures for November which are expected to decrease.
Tomorrow, however, will see EUR investors looking out for any improvements in the Eurozone construction output data.
Also tomorrow will see the publication of the UK Consumer Price Index for November which is expected to increase, likely further lending support for the GBP/EUR exchange rate.