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Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP), US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: US GDP, Confidence, Tanks – Fed Removes Rate Hike Time Frame

European Central Bank

The Euro top Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate climbed by +0.47% on Thursday ahead of Eurozone inflation figures, while the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) was trading +0.60% higher after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) removed the rate hike guidance in its statement.


Earlier… The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate began Wednesday’s session trading lower, while the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate recorded gains ahead of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures.

Industry expert Michael Hewson commented: ‘A lower number would raise bigger concerns that it could get revised even lower. This is because US GDP does have a habit of getting revised lower, and any further weakness could well raise additional concerns about how well the US economy is actually doing.’

UPDATE: US GDP sank from 2.2% to 0.2% in the first quarter, far lower than the 1.0% forecast.

Earlier… The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) and Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rates both recorded gains in Tuesday’s European session as investors remained upbeat that Greek negotiations could take an upswing after a new negotiation team was assembled on Monday.

In the past few months the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate has hit seven-year lows amid lethargic talks between Greece and Eurozone finance ministers. Furthermore, the Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate tumbled to 12-year lows before staging a recovery as a result of ‘Greenback’ weakness.

Last week saw Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis get talked down by other currency bloc representatives in what has been reported to be a rather aggressive meeting.

However, following the event, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras scrambled a new team of negotiators together in an attempt to kick-start talks before the nation runs out of money.

Monday saw Berlin nudge Greece further, when finance ministry spokesperson Martin Jaeger said: ‘Our goal is to keep Greece in the Euro. That’s what we are working for intensively. But we have to make it clear once more that the ball is in Greece’s court. We’re waiting for proposals and have been waiting for weeks. It’s frustrating but we are patient.’

Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast

Meanwhile, the US Dollar could be in for some movement every day this week on account of influential data with several high-impact releases to note.

Tuesday’s US Consumer Confidence ecostat is forecast to climb from 101.3 to 102.5 in April and could be an event to bolster the US Dollar.

UPDATE: The US Dollar exchange rate sank when US Consumer Confidence slipped from a positively revised 101.4 to only 95.2 in April.


‘Greenback’ softness has emerged in recent weeks as it appears that a slowdown in US data may prevent the Federal Reserve from hiking interest rates in the near future. Any other data disappointments could pressure the US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD/GBP) and US Dollar to Euro (USD/EUR) exchange rates lower.

Wednesday’s another major day for the US economy with the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Thursday will continue with US Personal Consumption Expenditure, Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims stats, while Friday will increase pressure on the ‘Buck’ with US ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending and University of Michigan Confidence figures.

Additionally, Friday will see a whole host of Federal Reserve officials speak and their comments could impact the USD/GBP and USD/EUR exchange rates.

Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) Exchange Rate Forecast

The Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate climbed on Monday after the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure fell from 3.0% to 2.4% in the first quarter of 2015—the slowest pace in three years.

The ecostat doesn’t bode well for the current Conservative government ahead of the UK’s general election.

Chancellor to the Exchequer George Osborne commented: ‘Today is a reminder that the recovery cannot be taken for granted and that the economy is on the ballot paper at this election.’

Thursday will see the release of the UK’s GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for April, which could give an interesting insight into citizens’ sentiment so close to the election. Meanwhile, Friday’s Markit’s UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), UK Mortgage Approvals and Net Consumer Credit stats could all have a moderate influence on the Pound Sterling exchange rate.

Euro (EUR) Exchange Rate Forecast – EUR/GBP, EUR/USD

The Euro exchange rate is forecast for an influential few days this week with German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data out on Wednesday, followed by Eurozone inflation, German Unemployment Rate and German Unemployment Change stats published on Thursday.

Furthermore, any developments in Greece could influence EUR/USD and EUR/GBP trading.

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is trending in the region of 1.1180; the Euro to Pound Sterling (EUR/GBP) exchange rate is trading at 0.7238.